A four-pack of Dolphins talking points to jumpstart your Monday:
1. Dolphins are exactly who we thought they were at the beginning of the season.
Dolphins fans aren’t exactly thrilled with the performance of their team this season. The Fins are 6-8, headed to their fourth straight non-winning season, and even with yesterday’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville, the Dolphins haven’t inspired a ton of confidence for the future.
They’re scoring fewer points than last year, coming up small in the fourth quarter, not making many big plays on defense and Ryan Tannehill seems to be the one rookie quarterback who isn’t lighting up the NFL. Naturally, some national pundits are starting to speculate that the team’s performance, and their inaction on their upcoming free agents, that GM Jeff Ireland will lose his job after this season. Ireland is signed through 2013, and all indications are that he will be back next year, but the speculation exists, nonetheless.
But when analyzing this season, one thing becomes obvious: It played out almost exactly as it was supposed to. To steal the famous line from Denny Green, the Dolphins were exactly who we thought they were.
Expectations obviously weren’t high for the Dolphins this year. Most pundits predicted 3-5 wins.
Let’s go back to an article we wrote on Sept. 9, published the morning before the season-opening game at Houston:
“Yes, it’s true that they have a rookie quarterback, dumped their No. 1 receiver and installed new offensive and defensive schemes. And expectations outside of Dolphins headquarters are low – particularly after an 0-4 preseason in which their many flaws were on full display on the HBO show Hard Knocks.
Las Vegas oddsmakers expect the Dolphins, 6-10 last year, to win no more than six or seven games. They have a first-year quarterback (Tannehill), first-year head coach (Joe Philbin), a rookie right tackle (Jonathan Martin) and an anonymous group of receivers trying to make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall. Trading starting cornerback Vontae Davis for draft picks didn’t improve this year’s roster, either.”
But, as we pointed out, the Dolphins’ schedule seemed pretty manageable:
“This season, the Dolphins have only five games against teams that reached the playoffs last year. And only two truly daunting road games — Sunday at Houston and Dec. 9 at San Francisco.”
Sure enough, the season has played out almost exactly to form. Tannehill has played with the ups and downs of a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins’ offense has indeed been limited by its lack of playmakers. Other than the 37-3 loss to Tennessee, they’ve pretty much beaten the teams they’re supposed to, and lost the games they should’ve lost.
That’s why Dave George writes in today’s paper that the season should actually be considered a success.
Now, Dolphins fans have every right to be upset that the team didn’t do more to improve the talent around Tannehill this year. But no one should be surprised with how the season played out. They’re 6-8 with games against Buffalo and New England remaining, and that’s exactly where a team with few playmakers, a rookie QB and new schemes on both sides of the ball should be.
2. Sunday’s win was good for building depth.
The teams that win in January don’t just have the best coaching or the most star playmakers on both sides of the ball. Often, it’s the teams that have the best depth to withstand injuries after a long season that end up playing in the Super Bowl.
And to that end, Sunday’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville was important. Obviously, the Dolphins aren’t going to be playing for the Lombardi Trophy this year, but a lot of backups and young players got some crucial game experience.
The Dolphins have been shockingly healthy for most of the season, but the injury bug finally caught up with them yesterday. WR Davone Bess missed his first game as a pro, and LB Koa Misi sat out, as well. And the Dolphins suffered several injuries yesterday: CB Nolan Carroll (knee), TE Charles Clay (knee) and RB Daniel Thomas (knee) left the game, while several players got temporary nicks: S Chris Clemons, WR Brian Hartline, RG John Jerry and LB Kevin Burnett.
The injuries meant several backups received more playing time than usual. Marcus Thigpen didn’t start playing on offense until three weeks ago, but got a season-high 28 snaps on Sunday, mostly as a slot receiver. He had a 15-yard catch, and almost caught a touchdown. Receiver Marlon Moore, mostly a special teams contributor, played a season-high 36 snaps and had two catches for 33 yards.
Rookie Rishard Matthews also played a season-high 29 snaps, and had three catches for 23 yards. Lamar Miller played 18 snaps and took six carries for 18 yards. Jason Trusnik had three tackles and a crucial fourth-down stuff. Martin played another solid game at left tackle, and Jimmy Wilson and Bryan McCann got a lot of action in the defensive backfield once Carroll went down.
Of course, third-round TE Michael Egnew still can’t get on the field. But Sunday’s game was a great opportunity for the Dolphins to get their youngsters some live snaps and still come away with a win.
3. Dolphins still have a flicker of hope at the playoffs.
They might have a better chance of hitting the Powerball, but the Dolphins can still make the playoffs, believe it or not.
How? Hold on, it gets complicated.
First, know that the Bengals are currently 6th at 8-6, the Steelers are 7th at 7-7, and the two teams play each other this week. The Dolphins are currently 9th at 6-8.
The Dolphins need to win out to get to 8-8, and need the other teams to be 8-8 as well. That means the Dolphins must beat Buffalo and New England, while they need Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati this week, and for both Pittsburgh to lose to Cleveland in Week 17, and Cincinnati to lose to Baltimore in Week 17.
The way to break a three-way tie for a Wild Card spot is:
1. Head-to-head sweep (not applicable in this case)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in conference games
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
If all three teams finish at 8-8, the Dolphins would win the tiebreaker given their 6-6 conference record, compared to 5-7 for Cincinnati and 5-7 for Pittsburgh.
But wait! There’s more.
The Dolphins also need the Jets (6-7, playing Tennessee tonight) to be no better than 8-8. Plus, they absolutely must have the Jets lose to Buffalo in Week 17. If the Jets beat Buffalo in Week 17 and finish 8-8, they would own the tiebreaker over Miami because of a better record in common games. The Dolphins would be 5-7 against common opponents, while the Jets would be 6-6 with a win over the Bills. But if the Jets lose to Buffalo, their division record would be 2-4, compared to 3-3 for the Dolphins.
So, to recap, the Dolphins need:
1. To beat Buffalo and New England
2. Cincinnati to lose to Pittsburgh and Baltimore
3. Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati and lose to Cleveland
4. New York Jets to lose two of three OR lose to Buffalo in Week 17
In other words, don’t hold your breath.
4. Don’t celebrate just yet, ’72 Dolphins.
The Dolphins did a nice job celebrating the 40th anniversary of the 1972 Dolphins team this past weekend and honoring the players and coaches who completed the only perfect season in the NFL’s Super Bowl era.
One of the ’72 Dolphins’ favorite traditions is to pop a bottle of champagne when the last undefeated team finally loses a game this year. This year, the bottle popping happened in Week 10 when the Falcons finally lost after winning their first eight games of the season.
As legendary coach Don Shula said on Saturday night, “A lot of people think we celebrate too much. But, to hell with them.”
But the Dolphins might want to find those corks, because in a great little quirk, their record isn’t exactly safe yet.
NFL player agent Ian Greengross passed along this stat yesterday: His client, kickoff returner Trindon Holliday, is actually 14-0 this year.
The 5-foot-5 speedster from LSU spent the first five weeks of the season with the Texans, who went 5-0 in that stretch. Holliday was then waived the day after their Week 5 win against the Jets, and claimed the next day by the Broncos, who immediately installed him as their kickoff and punt returner. And wouldn’t you know it, but the Broncos have now won nine straight games, all since Holliday joined the team.
So Holliday is 14-0 this year. If the Broncos win out this regular season and win the Super Bowl, he’ll be 19-0. And Perfectville will have a new resident.
